Recent India–Pakistan Conflict

The Indian and Pakistani armed forces were engaged in a brief but lethal battle only a few months ago.
China was a third country tangentially involved in the battle. The Pakistani military made extensive use of Chinese-built radar systems and fighter jets.
According to a senior army commander in Delhi, Beijing also sent Pakistan “live inputs” on Indian locations.

India’s Quiet Concerns About China

Although India didn’t publicly criticize China, many questioned whether Delhi should keep moving toward normalizing ties with Beijing.

The Role of Washington in Shaping Peace Talks

Decisions made in Washington, DC, thousands of miles away, have accelerated peace negotiations between the two Asian powers less than six months later.
Declaring that Delhi was being punished for its refusal to quit purchasing oil from Russia, the Trump administration levied 50% tariffs on Indian imports.

India’s Strategic Dilemma

Following this breathtaking assault by a reliable ally, Delhi had two obvious options.
The first was to give in and cease purchasing oil from Russia. But because Russia is an “all-weather” partner and caving in to pressure doesn’t fit Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strongman persona, it declined to do so.
The second choice, which India seems to have gone with for the time being, was to remain steadfast and look for alternative options.

Looking Toward China

Additionally, it makes sense to look no farther when your neighbor is a global manufacturing powerhouse and the second-largest economy in the world.
This was the backdrop for Modi’s weekend meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Tianjin.

Outcomes of the Modi–Xi Meeting

Though they pledged to resolve their issues for the benefit of their combined 2.8 billion people, the two sides’ statements lacked specifics.
Resuming direct flights between the two nations and streamlining the visa application procedure were the meeting’s immediate outcomes.

Obstacles in the India–China Relationship

The two nations still face significant obstacles before they can interact in a meaningful way, despite the prospect of “the elephant and the dragon” coming together.

Border Disputes
Since taking office in 2014, Modi has made personal investments in the relationship between China and India, making five trips to the neighboring nation until 2018.
However, this momentum was halted by the 2020 border dispute, and Modi hasn’t been to China in seven long years.
How the two nations handle their border disputes will be crucial to achieving more advancements.

Despite continuous negotiations between their military and civilian authorities to improve the situation, tens of thousands of troops from both nations remain stationed near their disputed boundaries.
Following this weekend’s summit, both Chinese and Indian readouts discussed “not turning their differences into disputes” and preserving border tranquility.

Trade Imbalance
A growing trade deficit of almost $99 billion (£73 billion) with China is a problem for India.
In many areas, both nations continue to impose hefty taxes and charges on one another.
Delhi would be hesitant to open India’s 1.4 billion-person market to Chinese goods without first resolving the gap, despite Beijing’s wishes.

Trump’s Tariffs and India’s Outreach

Trump’s tariffs may have accelerated India’s outreach to China, which began when Modi met Xi in Kazan last year, but the country’s actual situation has not changed.

Although the Modi–Xi meeting is viewed as a component of India’s “strategic autonomy” doctrine, Delhi will face additional geopolitical difficulties as a result.

The Quad and Future Geopolitics

Later this year, India is scheduled to host the Quad summit, which consists of the US, Japan, and Australia. For the most part, the forum was viewed as a challenge to China’s hegemony in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump may or may not attend, but if he does and says something critical of China, it will put the newly restored Delhi–Beijing cooperation to the test right away.

Delhi participates in a number of other international forums that are thought to be anti-Russian and anti-Chinese.
The course of India–China relations will be significantly influenced by Delhi’s use of its strategic autonomy during the coming months.

Strained India–US Relations

India–US relations are clearly at an all-time low right now. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was recently referred to as “Modi’s war” by a Trump aide.
The US president has been increasingly irritated with Delhi’s persistent denials that Trump had anything to do with the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May.

In spite of this, India has left the door open for additional talks and has not imposed retaliatory tariffs against the US. After all, India’s largest trading partner is the United States.

The Big Question

Will India’s negotiations with the US benefit from deeper ties with China, or will they suffer as a result?
In the upcoming months, this is the subject that will probably take center stage in geopolitical conversations in Delhi and elsewhere.

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